Bulgarians and Romanians can earn five times as much in UK

Economic migrants from Romania and Bulgaria could descend on Britain in large numbers when labour restrictions are lifted next year because the United Kingdom minimum wage is up to five times higher than the average salary in their native countries, a think-tank study has revealed. Despite attempts by the British government to play down the prospect of a further wave of mass immigration, UK ministers have talked about imposing restrictions on benefits and public services for workers from Romania and Bulgaria – an idea likely to clash with European Union law.

The report from Migration Watch UK claimed that migrants from Romania and Bulgaria would be "immensely better off" if they were to move to the UK when the British labour market was opened to them in 2014. Even allowing for the cost of living, the study found that a single worker would be four or five times better off than they would be in their home country while a worker with a spouse and two children would be eight or nine times better off.

Chairman of Migration Watch UK Sir Andrew Green said: "The wage differences turn out be simply stunning. The previous government made a huge mistake by agreeing to accession treaties that granted full access to our labour market to workers from countries that have only one fifth of our gross domestic product per head. Given that the economic incentives for Romanian and Bulgarian workers are twice those now enjoyed by Polish workers, it would be absurd to suggest that there will not be a significant inflow."

The research from Migration Watch UK suggested that a family of two adults and two children would be four times better off than a family on the average wage in Romania and Bulgaria. And a single worker, who saved 20 per cent of his or her take-home pay in Britain, would be "saving every week up to two weeks' pay on the minimum wage at home". A family would save two or three weeks' pay every week, it was claimed.

And the comparison with the situation of Polish workers already in Britain, by the think-tank, indicated that the economic incentives for Romanians and Bulgarians to come to the UK would be "twice as great". In addition, child benefit for two children - even if they remained in their home countries – would amount to a week's take-home pay at the minimum wage level in Romania and "rather more in Bulgaria", the report suggested. If a worker were to lose his or her job in Britain, UK unemployment benefit would be equivalent to more than twice the minimum wage in Romania or Bulgaria – stated the report.

To date, the British government had refused to release its projections for how many Romanian and Bulgarian workers might take advantage of unfettered freedom of movement next year. In a controversial article for PublicServiceEurope.com, UKIP MEP Godfrey Bloom claimed that UK ministers were "frightened to predict how many Bulgarians and Romanians will move here because the previous administration grossly underestimated the numbers in 2004", adding: "It predicted fewer than 20,000 eastern Europeans would arrive but Office for National Statistics figures show more than 600,000 were working in Britain last year."

But Ivan Ivanov, executive director of the European Roma Information Office in Brussels, insisted that the UK cost of living was too expensive for most Romanians and Bulgarians to even contemplate resettlement. "Averages wages in Bulgaria are around €150 a month," he told this website. "In Romania they are a little bit higher. They simply can't collect enough money for the €300 plane ticket. And on top of that, they need at least €500 for the first month's accommodation. It's a huge amount in these countries. To get that kind of money they would have to save for a year without eating."

Scaremongering "by populist politicians on the extreme right" was being used "to increase tension," said Ivanov. "There will be no wave of immigrants," he added. "Those who are now in the grey area will have access to legal work but the poor people who travel for economic reasons are travelling already."