Peak oil – are we sleepwalking into disaster?
by Dean Carroll
Like climate change, peak oil is often perceived by the more pessimistic analysts as one of those apocalyptic conundrums where we are already past the tipping point – meaning that any solutions human ingenuity can deliver will simply mitigate the worst-case scenario. Certainly, oil-field discoveries have been in sharp decline since the 1970s. And there is a consensus that peak oil has already been reached, at some point between 2004 and 2008. This does not bode well at a time when huge emerging nations like China and India are experiencing energy-hungry industrial revolutions. China's economic growth was 11 per cent last year and in India, it reached 9 per cent. Increased demand could soon outstrip depleted supplies.
But unlike climate change, politicians seem unwilling to encourage public debate about the ramifications of peak oil. There has been no shortage of government-commissioned reports into the problem, but most have been kept from public view – Britain and the US, for example, have maintained the cloak of secrecy by not publishing many findings. This could be because politicians are concerned that doom-laden messages - like the prediction that ordinary families will only be able to use their cars for emergencies within 10 years because of spiralling fuel prices – will cause panic and civil disobedience on the streets. Or, a more cynical view, might suggest that governments and oil companies are so deeply entwined – in some cases like Saudi Arabia and Iran they are, indeed, the very same thing and we all know about the intimate connections between BP and the political world here in the UK – that educating citizens on the need to move towards conservation and away from consumption would damage business and tax revenues and possibly, even, the foundations of capitalism itself.
Although, to frame the debate on acting to combat peak oil in a 'capitalism versus socialism' prism – as many also do with climate change, suggesting a red tinge to the green movement – does us no favours. Such dialogue will not result in the necessary progressive policies to reduce consumption or encourage research and development in vital green technologies to replace diminishing fossil fuels. Instead, it will lead to adversarial and polarised discussions – with the end result being that no significant action is taken. A new research group at Keele University, in the UK, led by Professor Bulent Gokay and Dr Farzana Shain is attempting to create a more mature approach, especially among young people. Working under the title Facing the future: peak oil and children - the group, which PublicServiceEurope.com has been asked to become part of – aims to consider issues including consumption habits and creating positive change in the future.
Acknowledging the current confusion and lack of interest in the topic - Gokay urges politicians, educators and citizens to grasp the nettle before it is too late. "Every aspect of modern industrial life requires oil, we live in a petroleum landscape because it is still the most dense energy form we have ever found," he explains. "But discoveries are declining and the oil is running out. It is a finite resource because it takes millions of years to renew. Only the Middle East and Caspian Sea region now have spare capacity, everywhere else has reached peak – including the United Kingdom, Norway, China, Mexico, Venezuela, Indonesia, Russia, Syria, Libya, Nigeria and Qatar. The cheap oil is already gone – when you have to drill deeper and deeper and in regions like the Arctic, it is much more expensive and the quality is not as good and not so easy to refine – due to the high sulphur content."
In addition, the world's largest oil companies exist in nations where democracy and human rights are not top of the government's priority list, to say the least. Names such as the Saudi Arabian Oil Company, the National Iranian Oil Company, the Qatar General Petroleum Corporation and the Iraq National Oil Company are not well known to citizens in the west – but their geopolitical power is enormous, easily dwarfing the likes of Exxon-Mobil, BP and Royal Dutch/Shell. We know that 17 per cent of our energy is used for producing food – through oil for fertilizers, pesticides, packaging and distribution. And more than 90 per cent of energy consumed is from fossil fuels. They drive transport, sewage management and the defence industry as well as the production of plastics, water, pharmaceuticals and electricity. Even former Shell chairman Lord Oxburgh once admitted: "It may be too late to do anything about it (peak oil) by the time we are fully aware?"
So what will this mean for future generations in practical terms? "Oil prices will have to rise further to justify deep-water drilling," says Gokay. "You cannot stop this or control it; it's simply a fact of economic life and physics rather than the fault of greedy oil companies or speculators. There is no long-term solution except to reduce our energy consumption. It's not just about using bicycles, but radically reorganising society and there is no reason to think that will happen. Oil ruled the 20th century and shortage of oil will rule the 21st century. This is the secret ticking time bomb under the global capitalist system; we are nearing a real emergency scenario. In less than 10 years, many ordinary people will not be able to afford to use their cars."
Of course, optimists suggest fossil fuel alternatives like nuclear fusion or green technologies like solar and wind power could fill the void left by oil. Even shale gas is being talked of as a viable replacement for oil. But Gokay feels that investment – from both governments and the private sector - in non-oil exploration and green technologies is still "at a symbolic level at the moment". He adds: "The trouble is that organisations and individuals think in terms of their own lifetimes – and politicians think about five-year election cycles rather than the long-term. We are sleepwalking into disaster and we need to educate our young people on what peak oil is really all about. As the Arabic saying goes 'my father rode a camel, I drive a car, my son flies an airplane, his son will ride a camel'."
His sentiments are echoed by professor of earth science, at Keele University, Chris King. "Peak oil is a complex abstract concept, but the world is soon going to be facing an energy crisis. We are past the peak as far as oil is concerned and we are going downhill." Meanwhile, Keele fellow Dr Matthew Wyman wants to see the issue aired in wider society, but in language that is not alarmist and still leaves people with some hope. "We shouldn't just talk about apocalyptic visions, but the sort of world we want to create," he adds. Quite right, but before refining the debate – we must first ensure that the talks begin, so that scarcity is not the defining factor in the lives of the next generation of children.
This crisis is just like global warming, governments not able to deal with it because both are linked to the fossil fuel industry that wishes to maintain the present system for short term profits. If we move to alternative energy, it will solve both problems - but hurt those invested in coal and oil, the two most profitable (for now) businesses ever devised.
Michale jones - United Kingdom
What a good article, thanks. It explains so well why we are soon coming into the time of being in the deep, dark and smelly stuff - without having to resort to charts and statistics.
Politicians are ignoring it - it would make them unelectable the next time around. Big corporarions (especially agro-business) continue blindly with business as usual. We (most of humanity) blunder on without a thought of what happens post peak oil.
Steve - Halogy, Hungary
This is a wonderful article. Every passing day, we are stepping closer to a world that has live without oil. The young generation should take note of this and find ways and means to find alternatives.
As a first step, the existing resources should be used judiciously to prolong the availability of oil. Every human being, irrespecitve of their affiliations should strive to switch to biofuels wherever possible as these are renewable, clean and will be always available.
Sankara Narayanan - Mumbai, India
Please tell me how you begin talks with the Republican Tea Party folks? My guess is the folks in the good old USA will not figure out the "peak oil" problem even when they can't afford to buy gas for their SUVs.
The Republicans will blame the Democrats and the Independents will blame both parties. Everyone will blame the Chinese and we will have a good old war to "solve" the energy issue. The "crisis" is different from global warming in that no one is going to go to war over global warming. But just tell the USA that it can't have life as usual and, well, what do you think is going to happen?
Bill Rose - Fayetteville, USA
We need to educate ourselves and be armed with information and skills that will enable our own families to cope with changing times can best work in our own sphere of influence. Politicans are not leaders, they are vote followers, we need to lead our own families and empower our own comunities.
The Transition Town movement is an excellent place to start gaining information and building community networks that will enrich our lives, repair the links and community resilience that oil has depleted. I am positive about the future, there will be new paradigms that emerge in changing times and we need to be ready for them.
Lou Cross - Malanda, Australia
Sankara Narayanan - biofuels cause other problems, they are not the solution. The production of biofuels is resulting in even more mass deforestation and increased food prices, among other things.
Nor - UK
An obvious solution is location efficiency. Good land use planning is one of the most powerful mitigation tools. The end of suburban sprawl, the end of the euclidian zoning code.
Anonymous
Lets alter the land use patterns. everyone seems to be obsessed with keeping happy motoring going. That is clearly an impossibility. Location Efficiency is one of the answers.
Kevin - USA
Running two billion cars on alternative energy is a complete fantasy, let's get real people.
Anonymous
Yep, we put up a local council candidate here on a peak oil platform, and polled last.
The dominant culture we live in is pathologically suicidally insane, and unreachable. That's the elephant in the room. The system is rigged to support growthist political animals, not those willing to tell the truth.
'Peak Everything' is a stunning event unfolding all around us: peak oil/gas, peak soil, peak water, peak food, climate chaos, and the 6th Mass Extinction - the collapse of the biosphere at a rate never seen before in the geological records - what an exciting time" to be alive, eh?
Ted Howard - Nelson, New Zealand, ASPO-NZ
If you live in Aurora, Ontario - good luck. It's the SUV luxury car 8-cyliner capital of Canada. We're doomed.
S. Gadsden - Aurora, On
Interesting article, I agree with most of its content. But, at least in Europe, a large part of the population and governments are fully aware of the end-of-oil era. That's why - at EU level for instance - billions of euros are invested in research and innovation programmes such as FP7 or the new Horizon 2020 scheme, starting 2013.
These programmes fund green technologies regarding energy production and mobility like fuel cells and e-cars etc. And even oil-addicted industry is diversifying business policies in renewables as well.
Of course, an awareness-raising campaing targeted to citizens, policy makers and managers should slightly move the perception we have of our current oil-based needs into an energy-saving and renewables-based lifestyle. But it will take time and maybe we do not have enough of it.
Filippo - Venice, Italy
As long as oil industry and banks controls the motor industry we won't see any shift to alternative energy systems. It's not a government issue but they can use the tax weapon to indicate in which direction they want to see an development. Take Germany: Deutsche Bank controls a vast majority of the car industry together with the land Niedersachsen. Do they promote a shift from oil? No and it seems they won't start until the barrels dry.
Mats L.G. Rosen - Kävlinge District Council, Sweden
One needs to address the cause, not the symptom.
A finite planet and an exploding population has a predictable conclusion, it is not 'if', it is 'when'. No, it is not just the birth rate, it is the whole spectrum of the mentality of no one is allowed to die which is in direct conflict with nature, or God, which has numerous ways of controlling the population of every species, animal or vegetable. Peak oil, food, water, etc. Take your pick, nature is slamming the brakes on.
Bernard Clayson - Kent UK
While some analysts see dwindling oil supplies as a problem, others feel that the end of our dependence on oil cannot come quickly enough. Writing in Utne Reader, Jeremiah Creedon says: "The only thing worse than running out of oil might be not running out of oil. The carbon dioxide we create by burning oil continues to heat the planet, yet the economy and the environment are still usually discussed as separate issues." Highlighting the consequences of just one country's addiction to oil, the Australian Broadcasting Commission reports: "The 26 million vehicles in the United Kingdom generate one third of all the UK's carbon dioxide - which leads to global warming - and one third of all the UK's air pollution, which kills around 10,000 people each year."
Kurt Kung - Sweden
Oil depletion and the concomitant energy crisis will present an opportunity for humanity to escape from the clutches of greedy materialist exploiters who have, for the past two centuries, driven the world right to the brink of ecological catastrophe.
The constraints that will attend oil depletion promise to bring an end to the military industrial era and the wasteful, destructive practices of contemporary civilization.
John - Australia
It is going to be apocalyptic for most countries. There simply no hope for countries with huge population densities, with no possible way of sustaining them. Exponential human population growth is directly correlated with the suppy of oil.
A negative correlation is also true. People simply do not listen - especially if you try and lie. They tried that stupid trick with climate change and it's back fired. No one believes it, but now they fail to see the real problem - namely, oil depletion. Capitalism and growth are not dead, they are death. The trick is going to be surviving the transition.This is not going to be neat and orderly. Where you live is going to be critcial. The UK government and the US are doing nothing because what can they do? There is no solution when you are around 300 per cent over the sustainable population level.
The Australian government, on the other hand, well its lack of action is nothing short of criminal. The bit no one is mentioning is the fact that although there are oil alternatives there are no oil alternatives to sustain current population levels. Our whole way of life has to change virtually back to the days of 17th century England. Small villages built around farming settlements.
It's going to be a new world order alright, but not the one you think. As things stand now, we are educating our children with computers and other high-tech rubbish that will be of absolutely no use to them in a few years. As for me. I'm career changing to Blacksmith. Good luck.
Greg - Adelaide Australia
Fossil fuels have driven a fantastic increase in standards of living around the world. The exact same arguments for peak oil could have been - and were - made 100 years ago, we could have all gone into self-depravation then and missed 100 years of progress.
I remember being told at school in the 1970s that I wouldn't be able to drive a car as all the oil would be gone. By the time I got a licence, gas was cheaper than ever with an enormous global glut. There are centuries of fossil fuels left, but with every price spike, there always has been, and always will be opportunists making a fast buck on snake oil "alternatives" or political ideologs trying to repress economic freedom. Don't fall for it.
With regard to "destroying the planet" - actually, CO2 is what makes our planet green. Most plants prefer far higher levels of carbon dioxide "pollution" - just ask a botanist, not a politician/climatologist.
Threepwood - Michigan
Threepwood, the same arguments were not made 100 years ago. Hubbert's insight was that production follows discoveries and as discoveries peak, so will production. Of course, that prediction is based on business-as-usual drill, pump and refine.
The problem is we pushed such quick growth (and resulting increase in demand) that new sources and alternatives can't possibly make up for the shortfall of the declining fields. This isn't hocus-pocus crystal-ball stuff, it's fact that even the oil industry acknowledges.
Nickster - Minneapolis
New discoveries can't make up for shortfalls? When is this finally going to happen, always tomorrow right? Again same basic academic argument for a century.
Meanwhile, contrary to 100 years of imminent peak oil predictions, far more oil was discovered in 2010 than was consumed worldwide, despite far more demand than predicted! Getting this through gov'ts' grubby fingers is the tough part.
Any supply constraint is, and always has been political, not physical.
Threepwood - Michigan
When is it going to happen? It already happened. World oil discoveries peaked about 1965. We currently use about five barrels of oil from reserves for every barrel produced. Again, these are facts. You can look them up. As for the oil discovered in 2010, we can burn through that much in two years and it will take a lot longer that two years to recover it.
It adds to the reserves, but they are still in decline. With discoveries declining, reserves declining, production flat and demand increasing, I'm wondering where you think this boom will come from?
Nickster - Minneapolis
I'm wondering where you think this boom will come from?
Same place it always comes from after every price spike and false peak oil prediction since production began: New investment in technology, extraction and exploration.
Canadian oil sands, Bakken, Orinoco, Iraq, Arctic etc, represent trillions of barrels of barely touched deposits being developed just as the recent demand increase is levelling off.
Reserves, production, discoveries are not declining, quite the opposite, even US production has been on the rise for several years despite political reperssion and could top the old peak if we are free to do so. As always it all hinges on politics, not physical supply - but again a world that discovers more oil in a year than it uses is not facing imminent peak oil, more likely a coming glut.
Threepwood - MI
Threepwood, sorry but you are wrong. Google any graph of US oil procduction. It has been declining since 1970 and recent finds will not make up the difference. It will not pass the peak again, in our lifetime or ever. Keep hoping, though.
Nickster - Minneapolis
Nickster, the increase in US oil production over the last few years is well established. Look up eia US crude oil production - 2008: 4950 K barrels per day, 2009: 5361, 2010: 5474.
Production is, in fact, increasing despite severe political restriction. Obama is even touting this increase as his achievement. A significant swing towards more economic freedom/ less government control in 2012, could drastically accelerate this increase.
Neither of us are soothsayers - we'll have to wait and see - but the point is that it has always hinged entirely on politics, not physical resources- there's no shortage of oil trapped under red tape.
Threepwood - MI
"The sort of world we want to create." Not only is there a shortage of oil but an equal dearth of what to do and how to live.
David Warr - Warrington UK
The price of oil and gas are starting the new year at a high level, and increasing, due to supply constraint and increasing world demand. Of course, the first responses to higher prices are finance driven, such as less driving, or reduced activities that consume oil such as airplane flights. Also, initial response will be to modify gas/oil distribution to take advantage of prices-profit margins, such as the US exporting gas, or reversing the direction of one of the pipelines. But, I'm wondering what will the next two years look like, if the price of oil/gas increases significantly, possibly even doubling.
Some reports indicate increasing world wide social pressures/unrest resulting from a shortage of oil by the end of 2012. One can imagine another round of economic stress represented by bank/company closures, layouts and increased unemployment. Or, continued dropping of property prices, resulting in foreclosures. But this is just saying that the stress will be accommodated in a manner similar to the 2008, or previous, recession.
But, there may be a critical point where the current economic structure cannot adopt to the stress associated with higher oil prices, where borrowing money today to make money tomorrow just doesn't work. I think that in the next 3/4 years, society will adopt to a new energy environment, but it is hard to imagine the changes.
Also, what new policies will governments implement in response to a constrained oil environment? Policies may address security, supply, storage, and allocation of the available oil. Policies may also address managing risks associated with reduced availability of oil, such as maintaining food and water supply, along with the availability of firemen, police, and medical services. Typically, government policies include increases in revenue, which will probably be implemented as new fees versus taxes, due to the general decline of taxable sources.
One can expect availability of alternative energy sources or cars, available at a premium and to a limited portion of society. This could result in increased differentiation between social classes, possibly including a new form of employment discrimination as employers weight the benefit of paying more senior employees for information/skills that were previously useful, vs new paying newer inexperienced employees less.
Also, there may be a resurgence of social institutions, such as universities or religions, as people meet and organise to deal with the new environment. While there may be an increase in usage of mass transportation, or car/van pooling, there will be pressures to reduce the availability of the mass transportation that receive government funding, as states / cities deal with balancing increased budgets and reduced revenues.
Finally, the family unit may be impacted as people who are unemployed need to move in with people who are employed, whether it's older adults moving in with younger, or vica versa. Also, the number of people getting married may decline in response to a more uncertain future.
John Vorwald - Germantown, MD
Mr Andrews, I make a correction, when referring to "America"​​, it is best that you specify. Latin America from Canada to Chile. North America to Canada, USA and Mexico. It is understandable that his article talks about energy and geopolitics and speaks of USA and China. There is a substantial part of the Americas that does not identify with the culture and traditions of the west and that can bring misunderstanding.Try to be more specific next time, say the United States of America or by its acronym USA or US.
Ivan Gil - venezuela
During the last century, society squandered 500 million years of captured sunlight on drag races, traffic jams, private jets and overheated office buildings - writes Rex Weyler
