Poland - can its EU presidency make a difference?

Poland certainly has a tough job on its hands with the rotating six-month presidency of the European Union now in Prime Minister Donald Tusk's firm grip. Aside from the Schengen problems, resulting from the Arab spring, troubling unemployment levels and the loss of momentum when it comes to showing leadership in tackling climate change – there is also the eurozone crisis, which is starting to feel like Groundhog Day as ratings agencies and markets target one weak country after another.

Michael Baranowski of the German Marshall Fund insists the Polish presidency will be a lot more "effective" than its predecessors – Spain, Belgium and Hungary. Certainly, Tusk is popular for his honest and, sometimes, blunt manner. Indeed, blogger J. Clive Matthews – of Nosemonkey's EUtopia fame – has already declared Tusk to be a "new EU visionary", adding that that his recent statements make "a welcome and refreshing change to hear what to me sounds like a rational optimism coming from someone with real influence in the EU after months of hand-wringing and years of stagnation". High praise, indeed.

But we all know that a hands-on EU presidency, even led by a political force of nature, is limited in its scope. Tusk may be able to help along EU association agreements with Ukraine and Moldova as well as hosting the Eastern partnership summit on the autumn. But beyond that, Poland will not be able to stop hedge funds short selling Italian banks because they are scared of the results of Friday's stress tests. As BBC Newsnight sage Paul Mason puts it: "Now, with Greece acting like a Black Dwarf, pulling the other trouble countries towards the orbit marked bail-out, bond investors are starting to contemplate a total disaster scenario."

In addition, Tusk will not be able to stop China buying up European debt and business interests at cut-price deals in these austere times – limiting the west's negotiating power in the future on important issues such as human rights, tackling climate change and global regulation in areas like financial services. As François Godement and Jonas Parallelo-Plesner state in their thought-provoking European Council on Foreign Relations report: "China is strategically acquiring European companies – giving it ownership of vital infrastructure, access to cutting-edge technologies and allowing it to play some countries off against each other. It has bought large quantities of debt in the EU's troubled periphery and won government contracts while excluding European companies from bidding for Chinese contracts."

On the ground, fine words from the EU presidency are unlikely to have any effect whatsoever on increasing unemployment in weaker member states such as Spain where nearly 21 per cent of the working-age population is without a job – according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Assessing the Polish EU presidency's chances, Baranowski says: "Success or failure will depend on whether its able to begin reversing the pervasive sense of doubt in the European project and to work out practical solutions to the many challenges standing before the EU." It is certainly some ask.